EFSD acknowledges the potential dramatic growth of sovereign debt in Belarus in the event of shocks to state-owned industries

The EFSD does not rule out a sharp increase in the public debt of Belarus in 2022, up to 61% compared to 46% of GDP, in the event of the need to discharge the state guarantee obligations on loans of state-owned companies in case the shock scenario materializes.

“The results of the simulation exercise show that if the above risks do materialize, the national debt of the Republic of Belarus and the Republic of Tajikistan will significantly increase. The sovereign debt of Belarus may expand to almost 61% of GDP in 2022, compared to 46% of GDP as projected in the baseline scenario. In the medium term, the national debt will remain above 61% of GDP,” as reported in the EFSD materials.

The Fund published a new working paper on Wednesday, which analyzes the potential risks of the enforcement of direct and indirect contingent liabilities and their impact on the budget and debt standings of 4 countries, which are recipients of EFSD funds (Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan).

Источник: INTERFAX (AI, RB)