Working papers

An EFSD Series of Working Papers presents the Fund’s applied economic research. The working papers might cover such issues of global, regional and country economic trends; macroeconomic, fiscal and debt sustainability in the member countries; analysis of transmission mechanisms in the region; industry and infrastructure-relevant research: global financial architecture and the functioning of the Global Financial Safety Net, etc.

The EFSD Working Papers are published in Russian and English and made freely available to the public.

Reprinting of the text for non-commercial purposes, in whole or in part, including large fragments, and placing the text on external electronic resources are permitted with a link to the original text.

The conclusions and interpretation of the facts in the Working Paper do not necessarily reflect the official position of the EFSD Council of Experts, the EFSD Council, or the EFSD member states

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06 October 2022

International financial institutions and development agencies have realized more than 2,900 technical assistance projects in the Eurasian region over the past 14 years
Technical assistance is in high demand by the countries due to the need for accelerated institutional and socioeconomic development. Projects in public administration, economic development, macroeconomics, health care, and agriculture prevail

International financial institutions and development agencies have realized more than 2,900 technical assistance projects in the Eurasian region over the past 14 years

27 October 2021

EFSD Working Paper WP/21/2 “Total Debt is So Much More Than Just Sovereign Debt. Contingent Liabilities in Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan”
This study aims to contribute to understanding the potential risks and impacts of both explicit and implicit contingent liability shocks on government fiscal and debt positions in the EFSD recipient countries. Special attention is paid to the significance of state-owned enterprises and their role in countries’ debt positions

EFSD Working Paper WP/21/2 “Total Debt is So Much More Than Just Sovereign Debt. Contingent Liabilities in Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan”

11 October 2021

EURASIAN FUND FOR STABILIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT WORKING PAPER WP/21/1 “Evolution of Tools and Approaches within the Enlarged Global Financial Safety Net in Response to the COVID-19 Crisis”
The EFSD Chief Economist Group continues the series of working papers on global financial safety net (GFSN) functioning. This working paper provides the analysis how the GFSN responded to pandemic on global level and on regional level (in the EFSD countries)

EURASIAN FUND FOR STABILIZATION AND DEVELOPMENT WORKING PAPER WP/21/1 “Evolution of Tools and Approaches within the Enlarged Global Financial Safety Net in Response to the COVID-19 Crisis”

30 November 2020

EFSD Working paper WP/20/4 «Optimal Debt and the Quality of Institutions»
Amid the COVID-19 pandemic policymakers now face the dilemma of whether to stimulate infrastructure development by raising debt, which may reduce future flexibility, or to strengthen their fiscal positions. In order to shed light on this issue, the present study analysed an optimal debt level, taking into account countries’ institutional characteristics.

EFSD Working paper WP/20/4 «Optimal Debt and the Quality of Institutions»

27 August 2020

EFSD Working paper WP/20/3 «Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic Post-COVID‑2019: Debt Sustainability, Financing Needs, and Resilience to Shocks»
The COVID-19 outbreak has revealed the sensitivity of economies and their debt positions to a wide range of disruptions: not only financial shocks may hamper economic growth, but health, political and environmental emergencies may also bring economic suffering

EFSD Working paper WP/20/3 «Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic Post-COVID‑2019: Debt Sustainability, Financing Needs, and Resilience to Shocks»

29 June 2020

EFSD Working paper WP/20/2 «Global Financial Safety Net in Eurasia: Accessibility of Macroeconomic Stabilization Financing in Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan»
This working paper takes into account six sources of financing - international reserves, swap arrangements, EFSD, IMF, multilateral development banks and bilateral financial support for macrostabilization. The analysis is of particular importance in the context of the current crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The funds disbursed from all the sources in 2009–2019 totalled at least $16 bln.

EFSD Working paper WP/20/2 «Global Financial Safety Net in Eurasia: Accessibility of Macroeconomic Stabilization Financing in Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan»

30 January 2020

EFSD Working Paper WP/20/1 «Kyrgyz Republic Debt Sustainability and External Shocks»
The baseline scenario suggests that the dynamics of external and public debt would remain sustainable. External debt, which includes both private external debt and public external debt, is expected to decline from 83.8% of GDP in 2018 to 76.5% of GDP in 2024. The total public debt (includes domestic and external government debt) will go down from 56.0% to 52.1% of GDP in 2024, reflecting the favourable growth/interest rate differential (that is, we expect growth rates to be higher than interest rates). Nonetheless, the debt outlook in Kyrgyzstan remains fragile. Thus, the EFSD Chief Economist Group examined the resilience of the Kyrgyz debt under three stress-scenarios: (1) a global recession, (2) a financial crisis, and (3) the combination of a global recession and a financial crisis.

EFSD Working Paper WP/20/1 «Kyrgyz Republic Debt Sustainability and External Shocks»

13 December 2019

EFSD Working Paper WP/19/2 «Achieving Stabilization and Development Objectives in a Single Agenda: The Experience of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development
Responding to the agreements among RFAs reached during the 3rd RFA High Level Dialogue, EFSD led the research track on stabilization vs development agenda in the activities of regional financing arrangements

EFSD Working Paper WP/19/2 «Achieving Stabilization and Development Objectives in a Single Agenda: The Experience of the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development

23 October 2019

EFSD Working Paper WP/19/1 «The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development: A Regional Financing Arrangement and Its Place in the Global Financial Safety Net»
Over the decade after the 2008-2009 crisis, the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) and in particular its regional components have acquired increasing importance. The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) is a key element of the GFSN in the respective region. The objective of the first working paper is to bridge the gap in understanding the dynamics of EFSD development and its place in the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) and the region’s financial architecture.

EFSD Working Paper WP/19/1 «The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development: A Regional Financing Arrangement and Its Place in the Global Financial Safety Net»

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2021