Macroeconomic reports

In the first half of 2022, the short-term indicator of economic activity in the main sectors of the Republic of Tajikistan amounted to 7.4%. A slight slowdown in the economic growth rate compared to the same period in 2021 (8.7%) was due to a decrease in the growth rates of services and construction. Remittances from abroad and external financing contributed to an increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves by 22.3% to cover 7.4 months of imports of goods and services. The budget deficit narrowed to 1.1% compared to 1.4% a year earlier, mainly due to the execution of budget expenditures below the planned level

In the first half of 2022, the KR economy grew by 6.3% amid an ongoing recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, supported by fiscal stimulus and increased gold production. External shocks in March 2022 led to local currency depreciation and accelerated inflation.  Under these conditions, the NBKR had to implement a tighter monetary policy, as well as conduct foreign currency interventions to stabilize prices and the exchange rate. Significant growth of tax revenues generated a state budget surplus of 1.4% of GDP in the first half of 2022

In H1 2022, the economic growth in the Republic of Armenia accelerated significantly to 11%, driven by both external and domestic demand. The imposition of sanctions against Russia had a substantial positive effect on the economy of the Republic of Armenia through an influx of tourists, expansion of exports of goods, as well as two-fold growth of remittances. Inflation accelerated significantly to 10.3%, driven by high prices on international commodity markets and stronger domestic demand. Under those conditions, the Central Bank of Armenia tightened the monetary conditions further by raising the refinancing rate twice.

In 2021, all sectors of the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan experienced a rapid recovery from the growth deceleration due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the real GDP grew by 9.2% in 2021. In the context of conservative fiscal policy, it was evidenced by declining budget deficit and public debt, down to 1.8% of GDP and 42.8% of GDP, respectively. Growing gold exports, accompanied by a gradual recovery of remittances and foreign investments, generated a current account surplus and contributed to further accumulation of reserves by the National Bank of Tajikistan and stronger stability of the balance of payments in 2021. Monetary policy was aimed at containing inflation, which was greatly impacted by rising world prices for food and commodities and depreciation of the local currency. The liquidation of two distressed commercial banks contributed to rehabilitation and stronger performance of the financial sector

In 2021, the key driver of Belarus' economic growth of 2.3% was high external demand attributable to the global economic recovery. Business activity was also supported by stronger household consumption against the background of delayed demand of the previous year and continued growth of real incomes of the population, despite a significant contraction of consumer lending. At the same time, the high uncertainty of the business environment, against the backdrop of sanctions, resulted in markedly subdued investment activity. However, the economic sanctions imposed during the year by a number of Western countries and the United States had a limited impact on foreign trade as they mostly applied only to new contracts

In 2021, due to an improvement in both internal and external demand, the economy of the Republic of Armenia demonstrated high recovery growth of 5.7%. As a result of continued price growth in world food markets, as well as a rapid recovery in the domestic demand, inflation accelerated to 7.1%, exceeding the target of the Central Bank. Against the background of mounting inflation risks, the monetary conditions tightened. The fiscal position improved due to the fiscal policy getting less expansionary, which was consistent with the Government's plans for smooth consolidation. Improved terms of trade, stronger external demand, and a recovery in remittances contributed to a lower current account deficit, down to 1.3% of GDP, which was financed with net inflows under the financial account

In 2021, in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic with its negative impacts, the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic demonstrated recovery growth of 3.6%. The key drivers of the growth were retail trade, services, and industrial production. At the same time, there was a drop in agricultural production due to a drought and a decline in construction. In addition to the impact of the drought, the shock associated with the world prices for food and petroleum products pushed the growth of inflation. The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic responded to that by raising the key interest rate sharply. In the context of growing tax and non-tax revenues and prudent spending policies, the state budget deficit amounted to only 0.2% of GDP

The reduction in foreign trade operations, the weakening of the Kyrgyz som, together with the difficulties encountered with the movement of goods during the state of emergency and the increase in socio-political tensions at the end of the year affected a sharp decline in economic activity and an increase in inflation. Under the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, GDP fell by 8.6% in 2020, and inflation accelerated to 9.7% by the end of the year from 3.1% a year earlier. Against the background of a strong reduction in the volume of imports of goods, and the growth of gold prices, the current account balance formed with a surplus. Significant amounts of donor assistance have helped to increase the level of international reserves, and have helped to finance public spending on the fight against the pandemic against the background of declining state budget revenues.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a slowdown in economic growth in Tajikistan to 4.5% against 7.5% a year earlier, however, due to the lower spread of the virus in the republic than expected, most economic indicators showed more favorable dynamics than expected at the beginning of the crisis. Despite the reduction in government revenues, the budget deficit remained practically unchanged, due to the reduction in non-priority spending. The improvement in the trade balance, driven by lower consumer and investment imports, as well as strong growth in gold exports, led to a current account surplus despite a decline in remittance inflows.

Refraining from quarantine measures combined with support to the state-owned enterprises prevented a deep economic recession in the Republic of Belarus. In 2020, the country's GDP contracted by 0.9 percent compared to growth by 1.4% in 2019. Net export was the only factor contributed to economic growth. The reduction in the export of petroleum products and the growth of state support for enterprises became the main factors behind the budget deficit, which amounted to 1.6% of GDP against a surplus of 2.3% GDP previous year. At the same time the non-primary export volumes increase and their import volumes decrease contributed to almost balanced CAB against 2% GDP deficit in 2019.