Macroeconomic reports

In 2022, the economic growth accelerated significantly in the Republic of Armenia, reaching 12.6%, that was mainly a result of a substantial expansion of domestic demand. Despite initial scepticism about the prospects for economic growth, actual developments in 2022 resulted in positive externalities for the RA economy through an increase in the number of tourists, the relocation of highly qualified specialists from Russia, expanded exports of goods and services, and an increase in remittances. Inflation accelerated to 8.3%, driven by high prices on international commodity markets and stronger domestic demand.

The negative impact of sanctions, along with high external background inflation, drove the economy of the Republic of Belarus into stagflation in 2022. Real GDP fell by 4.7%, while inflation accelerated to 12.8%. However, the macroeconomic performance in H2 is indicative of gradual adaptation of the Belarusian economy to the new environment. The GDP slump started to slow down. That was accompanied by significant deceleration of inflation, although it was partly achieved through tightened administrative price controls.

In 2022, Tajikistan's economy continued to show high rates of economic growth, driven mainly by domestic demand. Consumption was supported by high rates of growth of remittances. Investment growth occurred in the electric power generation, transmission and distribution sector, as well as in education. Higher remittances contributed to an improvement of the current account and the balance of payments in general, leading to increase of the country's international reserves and appreciation of the local currency. In turn, the local currency appreciation and a good harvest of agricultural crops contributed to lower inflation, which gave the National Bank of Tajikistan an opportunity to bring down the refinancing rate by the year end. In 2022, the budget deficit declined marginally

The economy of the Kyrgyz Republic has shown resistance to external shocks associated with the volatility of world energy and food prices, the disruption of transport and logistics chains, and the volatility of exchange rates of the national currencies of major trading partners against the background of an aggravated geopolitical crisis. The economic growth accelerated to 7.0% in 2022, due to increased gold production and the impact of new economic conditions on the economy. The migration of capital and people, mainly from the Russian Federation, had an impact on the growth of domestic demand, which put pressure on inflation. An additional factor contributing to higher domestic demand and inflation was a weaker fiscal position associated with higher government expenditures on labour and capital investment.

In the first half of 2022, the short-term indicator of economic activity in the main sectors of the Republic of Tajikistan amounted to 7.4%. A slight slowdown in the economic growth rate compared to the same period in 2021 (8.7%) was due to a decrease in the growth rates of services and construction. Remittances from abroad and external financing contributed to an increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves by 22.3% to cover 7.4 months of imports of goods and services. The budget deficit narrowed to 1.1% compared to 1.4% a year earlier, mainly due to the execution of budget expenditures below the planned level

In the first half of 2022, the KR economy grew by 6.3% amid an ongoing recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, supported by fiscal stimulus and increased gold production. External shocks in March 2022 led to local currency depreciation and accelerated inflation.  Under these conditions, the NBKR had to implement a tighter monetary policy, as well as conduct foreign currency interventions to stabilize prices and the exchange rate. Significant growth of tax revenues generated a state budget surplus of 1.4% of GDP in the first half of 2022

In H1 2022, the economic growth in the Republic of Armenia accelerated significantly to 11%, driven by both external and domestic demand. The imposition of sanctions against Russia had a substantial positive effect on the economy of the Republic of Armenia through an influx of tourists, expansion of exports of goods, as well as two-fold growth of remittances. Inflation accelerated significantly to 10.3%, driven by high prices on international commodity markets and stronger domestic demand. Under those conditions, the Central Bank of Armenia tightened the monetary conditions further by raising the refinancing rate twice.

In 2021, all sectors of the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan experienced a rapid recovery from the growth deceleration due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the real GDP grew by 9.2% in 2021. In the context of conservative fiscal policy, it was evidenced by declining budget deficit and public debt, down to 1.8% of GDP and 42.8% of GDP, respectively. Growing gold exports, accompanied by a gradual recovery of remittances and foreign investments, generated a current account surplus and contributed to further accumulation of reserves by the National Bank of Tajikistan and stronger stability of the balance of payments in 2021. Monetary policy was aimed at containing inflation, which was greatly impacted by rising world prices for food and commodities and depreciation of the local currency. The liquidation of two distressed commercial banks contributed to rehabilitation and stronger performance of the financial sector

In 2021, the key driver of Belarus' economic growth of 2.3% was high external demand attributable to the global economic recovery. Business activity was also supported by stronger household consumption against the background of delayed demand of the previous year and continued growth of real incomes of the population, despite a significant contraction of consumer lending. At the same time, the high uncertainty of the business environment, against the backdrop of sanctions, resulted in markedly subdued investment activity. However, the economic sanctions imposed during the year by a number of Western countries and the United States had a limited impact on foreign trade as they mostly applied only to new contracts

In 2021, due to an improvement in both internal and external demand, the economy of the Republic of Armenia demonstrated high recovery growth of 5.7%. As a result of continued price growth in world food markets, as well as a rapid recovery in the domestic demand, inflation accelerated to 7.1%, exceeding the target of the Central Bank. Against the background of mounting inflation risks, the monetary conditions tightened. The fiscal position improved due to the fiscal policy getting less expansionary, which was consistent with the Government's plans for smooth consolidation. Improved terms of trade, stronger external demand, and a recovery in remittances contributed to a lower current account deficit, down to 1.3% of GDP, which was financed with net inflows under the financial account