September 2020. Republic of Tajikistan: Recent social and economic trends and short-term prospective

In the first half of 2020 Tajikistan’s economy suffered negative impact of COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding external shocks. The primary effect of pandemic on economy was realized via external trade channel. The decline of global demand and production led to diminished volumes of exports and imports, investment and remittances. That in turn resulted in depreciation of local currency. The decline of real income and salaries along with contraction of foreign investment led to significant slowdown in GDP growth. Budget revenues has decreased significantly due to economic support measures (which were implemented via tax exemptions) and worsened financial performance of SOE. As a part of coordinated donor support for economy, financial and social sectors, EFDS Council approved budget support program of $50 million. In the second part of the year Tajikistan’s economy will remain under the impact of uncertainty of second wave of pandemic and possible recovery pace. In case of absence of new wave of COVID-19 crisis, taken government support measures as well as recovery of international trade and remittances flow would lead to high economic recovery pace in the near future.

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