April 2022. Republic of Tajikistan: Social and economic development in 2021 and medium-term prospective

06 May 2022

In 2021, all sectors of the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan experienced a rapid recovery from the growth deceleration due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the real GDP grew by 9.2% in 2021. In the context of conservative fiscal policy, it was evidenced by declining budget deficit and public debt, down to 1.8% of GDP and 42.8% of GDP, respectively. Growing gold exports, accompanied by a gradual recovery of remittances and foreign investments, generated a current account surplus and contributed to further accumulation of reserves by the National Bank of Tajikistan and stronger stability of the balance of payments in 2021. Monetary policy was aimed at containing inflation, which was greatly impacted by rising world prices for food and commodities and depreciation of the local currency. The liquidation of two distressed commercial banks contributed to rehabilitation and stronger performance of the financial sector.

This macroeconomic review does not include any medium-term forecasts of the key macroeconomic indicators, as they are under revision, taking into account the potential impact of sanctions, imposed on the Russian Federation, on the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan.